Heading into the second half of 2017, we believe the elongated U.S. credit and business cycle – currently eight years old and counting – will continue through the end of the year. Yet for the first time in almost a decade, the risks to the global economy are centered in the U.S. and not in other major world economies.
Growth in much of the rest of the world is stable or accelerating. In Europe, a much-anticipated credit and earnings cycle is underway, while most emerging markets are recovering from their 2015-2016 slowdowns and recessions. In our view, the biggest threat to the global economy is the prospect of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) further tightening U.S. monetary policy.
Against this backdrop, we believe:
Market cycles ultimately end with tighter monetary policy and the yield curve inverting. We believe this time will be no different.
Mutual funds are subject to market risk and volatility. Shares may gain or lose value. Foreign investments may be volatile and involve additional expenses and special risks, including currency fluctuations, foreign taxes, regulatory and geopolitical risks.
These views represent the opinions of OppenheimerFunds, Inc. and are not intended as investment advice or to predict or depict the performance of any investment. These views are as of the publication date, and are subject to change based on subsequent developments.
Carefully consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Visit oppenheimerfunds.com or call your advisor for a prospectus with this and other fund information. Read it carefully before investing.
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